NFL futures: Over/unders, projected win totals, predictions for 2022 season

NFL over/unders are here!

It’s the dog days of summer, and with the season still a few months away, the closest we can get to betting on the National Football League is betting on how many games each team will win during the season.

With the draft and a majority of free agency having come and gone, we have a general idea of what each team will look like. Hence, sportsbooks handing down win total over/unders.

You’ll notice there’s a big emphasis on strength of schedule when betting on these projected win totals. The models used are from the Ringer’s Warren Sharp.

Lace-up those cleats, get your pens out and get ready to break down the project win totals of every NFL franchise for the 2022 season.

NFL Over-Under: Projected win totals for the 2022 NFL Season

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Jalen Hurts
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NFC East projected win totals and predictions

NFC East has been mostly a wasteland for the past few years. A couple of notes before we get started:

  • The NFC East has the easiest schedule this season. The New York Giants have the easiest schedule in the NFL, followed by the Eagles, who have the second easiest. The Commanders are fifth on the list, and the Cowboys have the 10th easiest schedule.
Dallas Cowboys Projected win total: 10 (-110/-110)
Philadelphia EaglesProjected win total: 9.5 (-120/+100)
New York GiantsProjected win total: 7 (-125/+105)
Washington CommandersProjected win total: 8 (-110/-110)

New York Giants win total prediction

Despite having the easiest schedule in the NFL, the Giants are mostly a dumpster fire lacking talent on both sides of the ball. The Giants will be near the top of the draft looking for a new signal-caller next year. Under 7 wins at +105 is a very solid number to get in on.

Philadelphia Eagles win total prediction

Philadelphia has the second easiest schedule this year and might have had the best offseason in the league. They are the pick to win the NFC East this season and are a fine bet to get to double-digit wins this year. In Jalen Hurts we trust!

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NFC South projected win totals and predictions

A terrible division, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the clear favorites. They have the seventh easiest schedule in the NFL so their win total of 11.5 could be a spot to target. Overall, their division is above average in terms of easiness in the NFL which will be the case for most NFC teams, the conference is significantly easier than the AFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projected win total: 11.5 (-120/+100)
New Orleans SaintsProjected win total: 8 (-130/+110)
Carolina PanthersProjected win total: 6 (-120/+105)
Atlanta FalconsProjected win total: 5 (-140/+120)

Carolina Panthers win total prediction

It is hard to believe that the Panthers will go forward with Darnold as their QB 1, especially with Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo available. There’s an upgrade to be made. You can bang the over 6 at +125 here.

NFC North projected win totals and predictions

The Lions and Bears have the fourth and fifth easiest schedules in the NFL this season. The same can’t be said about the Packers and Vikings, who are exactly middle of the pack (15th and 16th) for strength of schedule.

Green Bay PackersProjected win total: 11 (-110/-110)
Minnesota VikingsProjected win total: 9 (-115/-105)
Chicago BearsProjected win total: 6.5 (-120/+100)
Detroit LionsProjected win total: 6.5 (-120/+100)

Would like to take the Lions to get to seven wins, but then you see Dan Campbell’s name on their team info page. This division is a pass.

Nick Bosa always has his eyes on the Rams’ Matthew Stafford
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NFC West projected win totals and predictions

Toughest division in football? Surely the best in the NFC. The NFC West is going to be brutal for all involved. The LA Rams have the second-toughest schedule in the NFL and the Cardinals are 24th. It’s a tough spot for everyone besides, oddly enough, the 49ers!

LA RamsProjected win total: 10.5 (-110/-110)
Arizona CardinalsProjected win total: 8.5 (-115/-105)
San Francisco 49ersProjected win total: 10 (-130/+110)
Seattle SeahawksProjected win total: 5.5 (-140/+120)

San Francisco 49ers win total prediction

The 49ers are the bet in this division. Their team is loaded on both sides of the ball, they have the 10th easiest schedule in the NFL, and they have a clean bill of health to start the year. Bet their ‘over’ 10 wins for this upcoming season.

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AFC projected win totals

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AFC West projected win totals and predictions

This one has the most legitimate case for the best division in the NFL. Their strength of schedule surely shows it, with the Chiefs owning the worst schedule in the league by far, followed by the Raiders at 30th and the Chargers with the 20th easiest schedule. The Broncos are 17th, which is just a marginal step up.

Kansas City ChiefsProjected win total: 10.5 (-125/+105)
Los Angeles ChargersProjected win total: 10.5 (+100/-120)
Las Vegas RaidersProjected win total: 8.5 (-105/-115)
Denver BroncosProjected win total: 10.5 (+135/-165)

Pass. Let’s just sit and watch the chaos unfold in the premier division of the NFL.

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
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AFC South projected win totals and predictions

The divisional favorite Colts non-coincidentally have the easiest schedule in the division. The division is very scattered. The Jaguars are middle of the pack and the Titans are the 21st easiest.

Indianapolis ColtsProjected win total: 9.5 (-130/+110)
Houston TexansProjected win total: 4.5 (-120/+100)
Jacksonville JaguarsProjected win total: 6 (-120/+100)
Tennessee TitansProjected win total: 9.5 (+105/-125)

Indianapolis Colts win total prediction

The Colts’ third-best schedule, combined with the Matt Ryan effect at quarterback, should help their team take a few steps forward.

AFC North projected win totals and predictions

Notably, no sportsbooks have the Browns’ win totals listed. This is almost definitely in preparation for a Deshaun Watson potential suspension. The Bengals and Steelers are near the bottom of the league with some of the worst schedules in the NFL.

However, the Ravens and Browns have a solid setup in front of them. The Browns have the eighth easiest schedule and the Ravens have the 11th best schedule.

Baltimore RavensProjected win total: 9.5 (-130/+110)
Cleveland BrownsNot available
Pittsburgh SteelersProjected win total: 7.5 (-110/-110)
Cincinnati BengalsProjected win total: 9.5 (-110/-110)

Baltimore Ravens win total prediction

The Ravens were 8-3 to start the season last year before injuries derailed their hopes. At the end of the season, Lamar Jackson appeared to show off major improvements as a passer. The best bet in this division is ‘over’ 9.5 wins for the Ravens.

Josh Allen
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AFC East projected win totals and predictions

All four teams are below the Mendoza line in terms of strength of schedule. No team is in the top 15 and have difficult schedules ahead of themselves for the 2022 season.

New York JetsProjected win total: 5.5 (-165/+135)
New England PatriotsProjected win total: 8.5 (-115/-105)
Buffalo BillsProjected win total: 11.5 (-140/+120)
Miami DolphinsProjected win total: 9 (-125/+105)

This division is a pass. The Jets would be a bet at 5.5 if the line wasn’t set at -165, which is the highest juice on the board. If it were to come down to -120 it is worth a unit or two.